Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mike Waltz receive 55 or more YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83ce15a2147e0e53b8e3d6ccc949eca123fb3d7de1186432fad76cdf4a6652e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 6c | 416.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 216.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 6c | 183$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 131.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…2cf5backed Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Waltz receive 55 or more YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?this page
- Will Mike Waltz receive 49 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive 50 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive 51 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive 52 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive 53 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive 54 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?No won
- Will Mike Waltz receive fewer than 49 YEA votes in his UN Ambassador confirmation vote?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.