Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd847da426f80dd888d3e0004a09be391e407f600d669fd32b66689ac1c11f556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,807 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 448.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 40c | 395$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 30c | 370.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 62c | 302.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 37c | 226.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 220.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 68c | 175.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed Yes | 32c | 156.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 34c | 154.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 69c | 131.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 122.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 118.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 84.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 60c | 83.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 68.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 67.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 37c | 65.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 63.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 40c | 61.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…d027backed Yes | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 57.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 29c | 47.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 42c | 45.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 43.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 43.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 28c | 42.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 41.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 33c | 40.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 76c | 36.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 34.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 72c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 68c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 72c | 32.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 74c | 31.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed No | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 38c | 26.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 72c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…85cebacked No | 70c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 74c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.