Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b02f65377dcaf899bb070ac28331d5a25f077a5b1c0671c6841dcae843c124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,734 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 34c | 1,034$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.55 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 650.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 66c | 527.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 48c | 443.22$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.56 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 59c | 408.66$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 392.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 62c | 392.24$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 31c | 357.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 312.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 200.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 195.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 180.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 155.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 139.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 122.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 67c | 121.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 57c | 116.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 114.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 41c | 113.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 51c | 105.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 34c | 100.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 99.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 98.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 96.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 96.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 59c | 95.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 68c | 73.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 69c | 72.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 64.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 64.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 49c | 62.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed No | 68c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 29c | 57.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 41c | 56.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 58c | 51.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 49.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 40c | 49.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 47.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 46.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 53c | 43.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 42.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 39.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 38.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 38.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 51c | 37.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 57c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6360backed Yes | 38c | 31.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 30.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 64c | 27.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 72c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…190fbacked Yes | 52c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…85cebacked No | 66c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 19.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 69c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 78c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.