South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd850ddf6853bbfd86a8334e16ecc30ac4871373f9034b2f9f8a98fe367f86ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 14c | 1,580$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 1,533$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.72 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 858.52$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 36c | 611.9$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 519.65$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…9773backed Yes | 36c | 518$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…1f3dbacked Yes | 36c | 481$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…9592backed Yes | 35c | 457$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…4706backed Yes | 36c | 409$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…220ebacked Yes | 36c | 379$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…8a6bbacked Yes | 36c | 338$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 328.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae8…9bcebacked Yes | 35c | 292$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…5339backed No | 64c | 282$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…5b50backed No | 65c | 272$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…8358backed No | 64c | 259$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…a317backed No | 64c | 237$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6e…8626backed No | 65c | 224$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…cfa0backed No | 64c | 217$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf2…e08ebacked No | 64c | 217$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb35…1fa2backed No | 64c | 216$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…0b26backed Yes | 36c | 216$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…3318backed No | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…a129backed No | 65c | 195$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…bdb0backed No | 64c | 193$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…f0b6backed No | 65c | 185$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7d…64bdbacked Yes | 35c | 182$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…5704backed No | 65c | 178$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…5375backed No | 65c | 169$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2f1abacked No | 64c | 168$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…5662backed Yes | 12c | 167.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…c112backed No | 65c | 162$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 98.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…be52backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked No | 70c | 86.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…4c33backed No | 68c | 72.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…eb5cbacked Yes | 29c | 65.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 60.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked No | 64c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
- Will Carabobo FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.