South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Carabobo FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe413423371da083b9aeffbe4e2f02ed7a6e697de1b2f83faa6cf210bd32f8970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,492 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 33c | 4,650$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,970$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 1,978$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.02 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 68c | 1,062$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.84 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…d6f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 17c | 421.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 395.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 266.19$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 27c | 193.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 131.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 18c | 129.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 80c | 80.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…8da5backed No | 75c | 48.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 66c | 47.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked No | 66c | 42.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…5f33backed Yes | 28c | 42.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 30.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 73c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…89d0backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carabobo FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?this page
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.