South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d60b53396358364dd787a40011242e8261825fc1c09df5ce9514bb1f8f662f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,507 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 1,940$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.2 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes | 64c | 1,463$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 1,003$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked No | 34c | 617.97$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.11 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…bdb0backed Yes | 32c | 418$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2afb…6d73backed Yes | 32c | 366$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 63c | 314.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a8…6932backed No | 68c | 241$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 39c | 233.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 37c | 233.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…1663backed No | 68c | 223$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…6c3fbacked No | 68c | 211$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 52c | 169.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf174…d052backed Yes | 63c | 159.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 157.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…574fbacked No | 68c | 144$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 41c | 130.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 80.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked No | 64c | 70.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…b669backed Yes | 32c | 62.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…450bbacked Yes | 63c | 51.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 49.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…e575backed No | 36c | 48.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…ca17backed Yes | 64c | 46.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 64c | 37.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 59c | 33.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…c1a5backed Yes | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Yes | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…89d0backed Yes | 68c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 59c | 22.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 66c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will Carabobo FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?No won
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.