Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8782aedf175c4cb42e34d9094a69c6b998311020b35276978c0c3b1773995b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 42c | 891.91$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.17 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 37c | 651.59$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.09 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 60c | 600$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Yes | 63c | 429.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 35c | 292.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 369 | 42.5%157 W · 212 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +9.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Yes | 65c | 162.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…0200backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 64c | 143$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 36c | 130.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked No | 47c | 94.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…4413backed Yes | 51c | 64.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 65c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 35c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 38c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 611 | 48.3%295 W · 316 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 35c | 37.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 316 | 56.6%179 W · 137 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 37.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 614 | 37.5%230 W · 384 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…fd15backed Yes | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 62c | 33.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?this page
- Larne FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.