Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd885a88a0760623b49436891225e23f1efd395d3c5352045c4b7744aab5dc58d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 10,279$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 725.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 704.24$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 22c | 581.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 303.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 254.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 236.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.61 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 67c | 201.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 184.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 163.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 49c | 160.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 71c | 159.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 109.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 34c | 108.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 13c | 106.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 66c | 100.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 99.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 97.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 76c | 95.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 69c | 84.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 81.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 79c | 69.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 79c | 61.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 75c | 47.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 79c | 41.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 71c | 33.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 37c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 25.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 79c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 70c | 20.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked No | 67c | 19.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.