Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769ecff87f8505849d5fe159810acdbe5ec7efd3e9a1bddda438e8685c1af455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 11c | 927$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 856.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 520.4$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 4c | 347$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 333.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 238.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 36c | 163.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 66c | 163.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 64c | 147.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 20c | 142.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 141.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 26c | 117.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 114.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 36c | 109.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 99.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 64c | 91.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 88.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 62c | 86.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 58c | 82.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 36c | 81.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 73c | 79.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 72.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 69.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 68.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 55c | 64.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 30c | 60.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 66c | 58.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 58.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes | 35c | 53.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 36c | 50.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 48.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 48c | 45.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 35.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 42c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 62c | 30.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…9a91backed Yes | 66c | 29.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 71c | 27.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 66c | 25.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 55c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 55c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 22.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 68c | 21.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 57c | 20.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 68c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 60c | 18.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 65c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.