Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd89efdbf4f165236cda909c25330f0d9d7815b0a57960ecee3ffe608bce6e93d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,464 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,317$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 799$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 480.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 393.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 14c | 377.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 12c | 334.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 329.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 19c | 319.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 284.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 17c | 232.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 7c | 213.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 77c | 212.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 196.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 10c | 190.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 187.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 187.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 185.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 16c | 180.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 12c | 155.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 128.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 90.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 24c | 81.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 76.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 19c | 69.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 15c | 67.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 19c | 64.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 56.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 80c | 28.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 76c | 22.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 76c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…af53backed No | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 74c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 16.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.