Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e0b96ecc36274a25071486580fc8e5886884720950f8abd3f64ac8438c51f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 79c | 929.23$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.14 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 72c | 793.2$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 16c | 524.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 369.74$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 71c | 275.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 241.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 234.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 28c | 197.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 30c | 195.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 57c | 163.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 73c | 149.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Yes | 70c | 141.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 31c | 131.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 121$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 29c | 120.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 79c | 108.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 29c | 105.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 103.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 14c | 102.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed No | 11c | 98.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 77c | 97.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 29c | 95.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 92.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 89.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 88.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 70c | 86.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 17c | 85.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 19c | 81.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 25c | 78.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked No | 40c | 75.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 67.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked No | 26c | 66.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 24c | 63.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 30c | 62.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 29c | 54.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 53.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 78c | 51.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 28c | 42.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 68c | 42.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 38c | 41.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 35c | 40.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed Yes | 69c | 39.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…7deebacked Yes | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 70c | 37.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 44c | 36.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 70c | 35.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 30c | 33.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 73c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 73c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 74c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 22.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…4121backed Yes | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed Yes | 74c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…903bbacked Yes | 61c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Yes | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 61c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…a36cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…d3bfbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…b10bbacked Yes | 73c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked Yes | 77c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 77c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed Yes | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.