Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a321351f0218b6a7c4ea8b41ae3bccee0fc14c22689b88649a0cb9e713335b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 511.46$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 425.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 3c | 389.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 305.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 5c | 273.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 264.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 45c | 218.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 30c | 172.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 76c | 156.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 43c | 141.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 120.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 13c | 119.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 11c | 116.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 70c | 106.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 11c | 102.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 92.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked No | 68c | 92.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 68c | 91.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 20c | 77.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…def7backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 22c | 72.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed Yes | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…55d0backed Yes | 16c | 61.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 59.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…585cbacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…3802backed Yes | 31c | 47.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…f7f2backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed Yes | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…2c70backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 70c | 35.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…b19dbacked Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 31.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 36c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 49c | 30.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed Yes | 37c | 29.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…13c1backed No | 68c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.