Tennis · resolved market
Perugia: Valentin Royer vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b79d07d94f2d28362f903fa485d2a171e30aec4954173b02aa95d56b0556b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentin Royerof Valentin Royer, Nicolas Alvarez Varona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 11c | 18,043$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.34 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 1,665$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 1,538$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.11 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 25c | 1,298$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.24 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Valentin Royer | 78c | 1,026$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…a6edbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 10c | 938.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 802.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 732.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 558.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 24c | 521.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 14c | 404.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 14c | 397.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 14c | 324.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 314$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Valentin Royer | 76c | 291.66$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Valentin Royer | 78c | 253.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Valentin Royer | 75c | 201.34$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Valentin Royer | 78c | 192.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 10c | 178.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 225 | 40.4%91 W · 134 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Valentin Royer | 78c | 155$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Valentin Royer | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 25c | 145.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 13c | 144.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Valentin Royer | 76c | 136.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 135.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 127.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6e…542dbacked Valentin Royer | 71c | 122.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 23c | 121.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Valentin Royer | 77c | 112.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 23c | 112.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 20c | 111.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…7825backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 13c | 109.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 108.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Valentin Royer | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 92.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Valentin Royer | 75c | 71.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 24c | 65.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Valentin Royer | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Valentin Royer | 80c | 60.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 349 | 65%227 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 53.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 49.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…fba8backed Valentin Royer | 73c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 380 | 74.5%283 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Valentin Royer | 68c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Valentin Royer | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Valentin Royer | 76c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe510…3535backed Valentin Royer | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 114 | 73.7%84 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Valentin Royer | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Valentin Royer | 75c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.