South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d63df3d17fcc8107682976050501772ec80eb23e8e365b140ff6926e1467ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 11,835$4,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,977.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 18c | 9,756$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 47c | 7,769$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.45 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 3,143$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.06 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 1,875$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.7 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 37c | 657.89$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.47 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 38c | 600.5$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.32 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 44c | 487.25$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 41c | 469.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 42c | 462.1$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 43c | 415.65$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 41c | 366.47$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 352.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 39c | 315.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 15c | 293.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 16c | 276.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 6c | 270.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 217.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 170.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 38c | 153.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 43c | 100.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 54c | 85.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 41c | 70.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 53.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Over | 54c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: AA Estudiantes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: CA Tucumán O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)CA Tucumán won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.