South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366a09e0001349d8c0330fc7478fb1f36215e0c6ceb4e87deadb02a61bdc574f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 70c | 5,504$3,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.29 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 4,917$3,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.73 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 28c | 3,991$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.79 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 31c | 3,248$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 1,370$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.76 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 1,032$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.93 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 30c | 601.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 30c | 435.08$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 364.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 69c | 289$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 214.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 30c | 179.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 30c | 170.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 69c | 129.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 78c | 82.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 82.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 65.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 55.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: AA Estudiantes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: CA Tucumán O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5Over won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)CA Tucumán won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.