MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e8b6a189b1a49a62ddd26985502596338e39db58aa359b75a1596df5177b66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 827.68$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.22 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 45c | 663.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.93 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 639.63$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.71 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 306.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Over | 56c | 257.44$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 55c | 180.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 160.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 112.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 108.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 97.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 82.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 77.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 45c | 67.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 58.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 39c | 57.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…e747backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.