MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b2ca72279c5e918820d3629019782369815058ac5834ec4a80dccc83e24427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 9,118$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 9,031$6,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.23 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 54c | 8,251$4,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.42 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 2,275$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.83 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 1,660$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.6 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 54c | 1,570$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.22 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 1,146$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 645$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 388$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 290.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 251.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 144.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 46c | 135.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 84.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Under | 50c | 80.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 79.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 48.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 46c | 48.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Under | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 49c | 34.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 34.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 62c | 33.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 47c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Under | 55c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.