Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd91ffc6cc7d2687006bc5f1914c5fb28b98e5df445b8634a8b147c265ef1da5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 9c | 853.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.49 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 681.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.29 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 479.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 23c | 450.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.39 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 379$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 45c | 360$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.79 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 75c | 330$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 22c | 222.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 71c | 214.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 22c | 181.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 167.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 147.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 142.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 138$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c55dbacked No | 75c | 99.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…e1c6backed No | 78c | 80.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 71.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 75c | 64.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 74c | 52.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 75c | 30.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 15.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 76c | 13.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.