MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd963591fde7750fbc5ffc7a19638fc2a6a904e8b1a07ea3c65ac4f28c4cc7ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,815 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 1,159$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.47 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 678$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 569$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked New York Yankees | 26c | 339.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.3 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 235.67$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 66c | 181.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Yankees | 67c | 178.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed New York Yankees | 19c | 110.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed New York Yankees | 59c | 109.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 105.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 71c | 68.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed New York Yankees | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 58.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 48.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 40.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed New York Yankees | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 37.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed New York Yankees | 63c | 36.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed New York Yankees | 73c | 33.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked New York Yankees | 73c | 33.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed New York Yankees | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…196bbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.