La Liga · resolved market
CD Eldense vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99b580e0ea49ae703f0ee34b89c3b1d9aa44c3ec5f37682a42f99e8077a5eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 6c | 1,606$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 1,441$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.89 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 30c | 1,419$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 739.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 36c | 650.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…a0c2backed Over | 73c | 231.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 11c | 201.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 175.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 136.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 81.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 81.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…0783backed Over | 27c | 47.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 73c | 42.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 40c | 37.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Eldense vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Eldense vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Eldense vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Eldense vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CD Eldense (-1.5)Cádiz CF won
- Spread: Cádiz CF (-1.5)CD Eldense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.