South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Nacional win on 2026-03-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d1c5a3386261abcf3e724937fefefcff32e6b65e42bc7b4db681fe000d154b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,178 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked No | 45c | 4,998$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 2,932$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 1,633$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 1,573$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 34c | 1,005$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.2 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 869.88$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.13 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 68c | 490.44$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.05 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 354.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 52c | 349.29$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked No | 71c | 228.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 55c | 217.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 45c | 203$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 16c | 174.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…309ebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 45c | 106.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…dc8cbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…2020backed Yes | 54c | 88.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked No | 49c | 77.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Yes | 29c | 68.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 46c | 47.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 54c | 47.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…c1cebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…c9aabacked Yes | 51c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 46c | 27.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 47c | 27.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 46c | 24.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 45c | 22.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe894…d8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 62c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +15.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Nacional win on 2026-03-05?this page
- Will Club Nacional vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-03-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.