Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e3595b6f66bd40d070c29638f880cc7c0766675a72e5bd7dbfc4c90d0750b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,207 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 715.09$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 30c | 667.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 286.26$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 234.62$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 76c | 218.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 199.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 178.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 168.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 28c | 167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 28c | 162$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 16c | 129.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 71c | 97.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 31c | 79.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 52.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 42.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 77c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 72c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.