Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f53d6c4630bf407057f8faaa5e78d3b5a2ec5028d6651e915396d9d44f0499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 68c | 375.89$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 31c | 254$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…5b2ebacked No | 50c | 226.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…db7ebacked No | 50c | 224.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…5893backed No | 50c | 224$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…a24cbacked No | 50c | 217.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…e145backed No | 50c | 216.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…e3e1backed No | 50c | 216.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…de78backed No | 50c | 216.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…95a1backed No | 50c | 215.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c5e0backed No | 50c | 215.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…4f82backed No | 50c | 215.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…74bfbacked No | 50c | 214.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed No | 50c | 213.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…beabbacked No | 50c | 213.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…3ff5backed No | 50c | 213.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…591bbacked No | 50c | 212.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…0b80backed No | 50c | 212.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…0004backed No | 50c | 211.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed No | 50c | 211.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1cb4backed No | 50c | 210.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f4…8c69backed No | 50c | 209.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…3768backed No | 50c | 209.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…116abacked No | 50c | 209.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333c…fe96backed No | 50c | 209.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked No | 50c | 208.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…7ca5backed No | 50c | 208.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…0fc3backed No | 50c | 208.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…d917backed No | 50c | 208.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…6558backed No | 50c | 208.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f58…7becbacked No | 50c | 208.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…0a36backed No | 50c | 207.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c8…872bbacked No | 50c | 207.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…0deebacked No | 50c | 207.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…fda5backed No | 50c | 207.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed No | 50c | 206.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b4…3b3dbacked No | 50c | 206.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…efadbacked No | 50c | 206.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…467dbacked No | 50c | 206.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0029…80ecbacked No | 50c | 206.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…b17fbacked No | 50c | 206.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…0142backed No | 50c | 206.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…fc15backed No | 50c | 206.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…3ef9backed No | 50c | 206.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…f965backed No | 50c | 205.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed No | 50c | 205.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…e7eabacked No | 50c | 205.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…b38bbacked No | 50c | 205.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…546ebacked No | 50c | 205.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…0592backed No | 50c | 204.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed No | 50c | 204.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…f452backed No | 50c | 204.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…ecf2backed No | 50c | 204.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…9becbacked No | 50c | 204.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…0377backed No | 50c | 202.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…27afbacked No | 50c | 201.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…71b9backed No | 50c | 201.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…5cb2backed No | 50c | 201.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…99dfbacked No | 50c | 198.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…6d55backed No | 50c | 196.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…72f3backed No | 50c | 192.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…669dbacked No | 50c | 191.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 29c | 44.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 44c | 25.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of April?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of April?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $152 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $160 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.