Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6753ccf09fcde9a792ec8be1f82d976ac1be5d97bd18118de6f55f24e1e1e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 13c | 481.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 8c | 399.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…fda5backed No | 50c | 270.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…adbfbacked No | 50c | 252.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…ba63backed No | 50c | 251.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…eeeabacked No | 50c | 251.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed No | 50c | 249.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…e080backed No | 50c | 248.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…dd5fbacked No | 50c | 248.53$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…ecf2backed No | 50c | 248.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 50c | 248.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked No | 50c | 247.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…836fbacked No | 50c | 245.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed No | 50c | 244.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333c…fe96backed No | 50c | 243.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…ba2cbacked No | 50c | 239.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…a4ccbacked No | 50c | 236.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 155.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 23c | 154$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 16c | 115.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 78c | 109.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of April?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of April?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $152 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $160 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.