Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eead3351f697489b66b3dc872f84ee235f74f5f9fb8076c9fe4feb52315555b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 44c | 1,559$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.05 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…55eabacked Yes | 54c | 282$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 29c | 197.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 57c | 162.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…763cbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed No | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…d139backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 47c | 34.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 45c | 28.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bb…a0edbacked Yes | 72c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of April?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $152 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of April?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $160 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.