WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Sparks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ff7f1369130bce180b007658f4cdab9d361402d7c8b50b583c8d10b4930374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4403…c953backed Mercury | 39c | 5,054$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Sparks | 63c | 3,719$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.83 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 37c | 3,050$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.5 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sparks | 57c | 2,794$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.86 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Mercury | 32c | 2,241$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Sparks | 65c | 1,998$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.7 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 40c | 1,924$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.05 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Mercury | 36c | 1,442$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 31c | 1,422$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.04 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sparks | 63c | 1,112$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.09 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sparks | 64c | 968$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.52 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 34c | 783.42$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.79 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Mercury | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Mercury | 11c | 280$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Sparks | 65c | 180.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Sparks | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Mercury | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Sparks | 41c | 61.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Sparks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Sparks | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Mercury | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Sparks | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sparks | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Mercury | 79c | 14.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.