Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0247d8f04bb603f0705976b14aa99bf47ae280a2b5f37cc3bf59ec195de35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, Celtic FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtic FC | 36c | 2,617$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.55 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed AS Roma | 56c | 1,309$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.88 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AS Roma | 65c | 989.59$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.07 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed AS Roma | 35c | 250$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Celtic FC | 38c | 249.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AS Roma | 20c | 195$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Celtic FC | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked AS Roma | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Celtic FC | 43c | 78.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Celtic FC | 80c | 76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed AS Roma | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed AS Roma | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed AS Roma | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked AS Roma | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked AS Roma | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked AS Roma | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- Celtic FC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Celtic FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.