Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda071e9a5eca2121cd855875a02daaf4b3278345d0b9d61a7a162037724e8016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 517.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7390backed Yes | 57c | 335.31$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 72c | 262.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 32c | 124.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 15c | 116.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 75c | 110.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 57c | 104.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…f839backed Yes | 64c | 75.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 76c | 49.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…2a56backed Yes | 56c | 44.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 29c | 40.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 44c | 40.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…f8a3backed Yes | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…8a16backed Yes | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…7b1dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 75c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…5b77backed Yes | 72c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 86°F or higher on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.