TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, HULIGANI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,744 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Xtreme Gaming48c2,313$1,100 inWon+$1,212.881,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d36…f787backed HULIGANI52c2,276$1,184 inLost-$1,183.771450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming43c749.99$322 inWon+$427.491,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked HULIGANI52c651.8$341 inLost-$340.8435850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked HULIGANI57c270$154 inLost-$153.98842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked HULIGANI20c154$30 inLost-$30.062152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…15afbacked HULIGANI36c138.88$50 inLost-$503330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca4b…521ebacked HULIGANI36c138.88$50 inLost-$504238.1%16 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed HULIGANI52c125.82$65 inLost-$64.9918844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Xtreme Gaming48c125.1$60 inWon+$65.122260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Xtreme Gaming43c119.99$52 inWon+$68.426741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Xtreme Gaming65c110.91$72 inWon+$39.2343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xtreme Gaming43c100$43 inWon+$5774549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf2…1204backed HULIGANI65c77.14$50 inLost-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Xtreme Gaming35c67.86$24 inWon+$44.1120448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb04d…2b19backed HULIGANI57c52.63$30 inLost-$3010745.8%49 W · 58 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5000…c2bebacked Xtreme Gaming48c52.23$25 inWon+$27.233441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e0…d8b8backed Xtreme Gaming50c40$20 inWon+$202347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Xtreme Gaming52c33$17 inWon+$15.8436051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.