TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, HULIGANI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$267,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Xtreme Gaming64c43,939$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,939.461,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed HULIGANI32c31,000$9,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,927.4247646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked HULIGANI16c19,100$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.97731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Xtreme Gaming67c12,382$8,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,077.094148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed HULIGANI33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30026540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e1…a8a1backed Xtreme Gaming80c9,938$7,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.062330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-47.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7993…cf5abacked Xtreme Gaming65c8,118$5,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.212962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked HULIGANI13c7,359$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.4289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked HULIGANI33c6,793$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.831936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked HULIGANI39c6,600$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57410045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked HULIGANI33c6,270$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.471,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Xtreme Gaming61c5,636$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.5456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Xtreme Gaming78c5,316$4,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.4818351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed HULIGANI22c5,080$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.230452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed HULIGANI40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed HULIGANI39c4,623$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.9769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Xtreme Gaming79c4,458$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.7251364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked HULIGANI19c4,320$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.121,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Xtreme Gaming78c3,816$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.8353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Xtreme Gaming67c3,568$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.849556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Xtreme Gaming66c3,328$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.9910540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Xtreme Gaming62c3,247$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.0314258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed HULIGANI13c3,127$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.514825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked HULIGANI20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.856349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked HULIGANI20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed HULIGANI6c2,854$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked HULIGANI24c2,831$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.351,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed HULIGANI20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed HULIGANI33c2,450$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.4981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed HULIGANI23c2,400$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.339122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba03…0486backed HULIGANI40c2,358$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.27234.7%25 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba7…9c8abacked HULIGANI30c2,121$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.638020%16 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed HULIGANI10c2,104$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21015739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc2…077bbacked HULIGANI21c2,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4108450%42 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked HULIGANI32c1,918$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.7650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed HULIGANI23c1,732$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.3150353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed HULIGANI34c1,700$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked HULIGANI21c1,597$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.421558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Xtreme Gaming62c1,571$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.1212159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming77c1,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3451,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked HULIGANI31c1,460$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.612146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed HULIGANI33c1,459$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.478934.8%31 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b6…6089backed HULIGANI33c1,429$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Xtreme Gaming77c1,326$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4947748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d6…7f51backed Xtreme Gaming62c1,285$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.795947.5%28 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked HULIGANI35c1,278$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9412148.8%59 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Xtreme Gaming61c1,235$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.7861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed HULIGANI38c1,215$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.5628347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked HULIGANI29c1,121$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.2935850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed HULIGANI33c1,085$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3587440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed HULIGANI33c1,085$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35415545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed HULIGANI2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed HULIGANI37c984.53$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.071,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Xtreme Gaming69c929.18$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9530155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed HULIGANI33c926.64$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052552%13 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed HULIGANI33c924.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.252733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked HULIGANI38c917.56$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510245.1%46 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…90f3backed HULIGANI19c888$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.019968.7%68 W · 31 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f6a…599abacked HULIGANI17c888$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.969061.1%55 W · 35 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed Xtreme Gaming60c850.71$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.285152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…cd4fbacked HULIGANI17c843.36$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.922227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed HULIGANI36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed HULIGANI35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…6243backed HULIGANI18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1446478.1%50 W · 14 L+11.1wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+24.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed HULIGANI15c799$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8942053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d87…24d0backed HULIGANI5c775.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402733.3%9 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked HULIGANI33c775.41$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8932548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed HULIGANI35c714.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked HULIGANI39c681.85$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed HULIGANI33c679.43$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.488740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b4…4e24backed HULIGANI20c666$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.26764.2%43 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3feb…7dfbbacked HULIGANI23c666$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.777931.6%25 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed HULIGANI33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Xtreme Gaming67c565$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed3…186cbacked HULIGANI34c563.75$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.657169%49 W · 22 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked HULIGANI28c537.89$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.195342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Xtreme Gaming68c525.91$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked HULIGANI32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b11…c206backed HULIGANI18c497.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed HULIGANI12c486.09$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9342639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked HULIGANI23c444.86$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3277256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked HULIGANI24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-73%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed HULIGANI34c415.91$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4318247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed HULIGANI28c408.81$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6618844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked HULIGANI26c406.47$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6866947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed HULIGANI35c401.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14026343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Xtreme Gaming79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8413258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d02…0ff3backed HULIGANI20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807970.9%56 W · 23 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+17.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked HULIGANI21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.413732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Xtreme Gaming61c381.74$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0735151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Xtreme Gaming65c361.45$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0315368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed HULIGANI10c355.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.68425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc300…007ebacked HULIGANI11c350.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-59.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Xtreme Gaming74c346.12$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.221,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Xtreme Gaming65c334.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11725248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa4d…7937backed HULIGANI20c333$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.67065.7%46 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a89…e37bbacked HULIGANI18c300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed HULIGANI33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9973743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked HULIGANI20c285.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.578254.9%45 W · 37 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed HULIGANI14c281.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.978516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.