TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, HULIGANI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x97ae…82bdbacked HULIGANI3c6,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Xtreme Gaming71c4,957$3,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.3635850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b6…6089backed HULIGANI31c4,953$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c45…b26bbacked HULIGANI10c4,506$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.571921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-66.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Xtreme Gaming77c3,323$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.0471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Xtreme Gaming68c2,929$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.311,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked HULIGANI36c2,800$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.226050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked HULIGANI32c2,069$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.9490756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…dbebbacked Xtreme Gaming72c1,600$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed HULIGANI11c1,529$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed HULIGANI32c1,237$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9118247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked HULIGANI33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012048.3%58 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Xtreme Gaming62c1,002$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.7668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked HULIGANI28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28026846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked HULIGANI32c999.94$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9811142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Xtreme Gaming79c929.08$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.841,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming66c823.4$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.91,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Xtreme Gaming69c809.97$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.094953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed HULIGANI32c743.14$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.436368.3%43 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Xtreme Gaming67c705.38$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.784751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming75c697.67$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.952,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98eb…8c14backed Xtreme Gaming66c693.95$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.942661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked HULIGANI4c686.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.861,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed HULIGANI28c613.56$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.850353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4669…cf93backed HULIGANI33c597.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Xtreme Gaming68c553.82$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2218351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked HULIGANI12c499.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed HULIGANI29c491.01$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6612335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Xtreme Gaming62c456.62$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.5289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Xtreme Gaming70c450$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13533165.3%216 W · 115 L+23.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Xtreme Gaming67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7621043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Xtreme Gaming69c435.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.14988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Xtreme Gaming69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7820949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed HULIGANI18c360.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1841248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed HULIGANI36c358.47$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5825850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed HULIGANI35c344.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.169735.1%34 W · 63 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd098…8d1cbacked Xtreme Gaming67c335$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed HULIGANI30c334.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4216841.1%69 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7093…a798backed HULIGANI34c318.15$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.174542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Xtreme Gaming68c310.58$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2510952.3%57 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked HULIGANI32c309.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010437.5%39 W · 65 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed HULIGANI33c305.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014136.9%52 W · 89 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked HULIGANI33c305.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed HULIGANI33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995630.4%17 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed HULIGANI33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9918446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked HULIGANI16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4821941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c1…68f4backed HULIGANI33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88f4…9d7abacked HULIGANI34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Xtreme Gaming69c299.98$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7141055.1%226 W · 184 L+39.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Xtreme Gaming78c297.42$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.431,25549.6%623 W · 632 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Xtreme Gaming73c270.54$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.059339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed HULIGANI31c258.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed HULIGANI10c250.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ee…7aa8backed HULIGANI32c234.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.063046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Xtreme Gaming67c224.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9620448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Xtreme Gaming67c223.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.875666.1%37 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf42f…0075backed Xtreme Gaming67c222.23$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.23977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed HULIGANI32c218.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7026343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x624a…42babacked HULIGANI12c215.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Xtreme Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6621353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Xtreme Gaming69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6292561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xtreme Gaming65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7074549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x284f…31efbacked HULIGANI18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366328.6%18 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df8…8e9dbacked HULIGANI29c194.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.654240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21b…36bbbacked Xtreme Gaming79c178.12$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.129866.3%65 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed HULIGANI35c175.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1225149%123 W · 128 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Xtreme Gaming69c173.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9522260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked HULIGANI11c170$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.531126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked HULIGANI33c169.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.932548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Xtreme Gaming65c154.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1522453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Xtreme Gaming71c154$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.322462.1%139 W · 85 L-1.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed HULIGANI8c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.517323.1%40 W · 133 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked HULIGANI27c149.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4515761.1%96 W · 61 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eb2…bbe6backed Xtreme Gaming68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1137…e601backed HULIGANI31c145.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457040%28 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9224…b43bbacked HULIGANI31c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.816942.6%72 W · 97 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed HULIGANI26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked HULIGANI28c134.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.591,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebe…ecb1backed HULIGANI22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x776c…9f69backed HULIGANI13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152924.1%7 W · 22 L-5.2wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-46.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Xtreme Gaming63c114.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4966545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Xtreme Gaming71c112.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed HULIGANI20c110.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1543560.5%263 W · 172 L+43.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Xtreme Gaming69c109.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9665447.4%310 W · 344 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9b…c323backed Xtreme Gaming71c107$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.83053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed HULIGANI14c102.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810453.8%56 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e3…9234backed HULIGANI24c102.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4213…41c9backed HULIGANI22c100.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222119%4 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x648c…92e8backed HULIGANI31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe928…3b65backed HULIGANI31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Xtreme Gaming69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3113850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Xtreme Gaming64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3669552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked HULIGANI27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276055%33 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9303…731abacked Xtreme Gaming72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Xtreme Gaming72c96$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9858742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked HULIGANI11c90.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1852638.4%202 W · 324 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed HULIGANI28c88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6412447.6%59 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e55…a3fbbacked Xtreme Gaming69c87.22$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222075%15 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked HULIGANI35c85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7559154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2628…39cfbacked Xtreme Gaming70c81.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4317763.8%113 W · 64 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.