NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda201afce12e90e9641be47b3f73b56816031a26fdcda751a1428ee6d1265f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henderson Silver Knightsof Bakersfield Condors, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 50c | 7,560$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,771.69 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 1,225$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.9 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 1,000$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 819$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…2e78backed Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 638.65$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 607.8$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bakersfield Condors | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 52c | 479.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 369$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…391fbacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 368.67$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 354.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 296.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 275$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Bakersfield Condors | 53c | 260.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 255.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Henderson Silver Knights | 48c | 246$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…a4bbbacked Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…bf11backed Henderson Silver Knights | 50c | 213$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Bakersfield Condors | 51c | 208$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e85…3990backed Henderson Silver Knights | 50c | 208$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…091bbacked Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 207$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 192.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 191.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Henderson Silver Knights | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…cad2backed Bakersfield Condors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 94.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Henderson Silver Knights | 49c | 71.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Bakersfield Condors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 58.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Bakersfield Condors | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 36.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.