Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4a5f5f99928f9a0d89826f7a5c396b376bc8aaa6ad3a334d7af8307a0a6668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 599.95$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.98 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 431.9$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Rune Eaters | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters | 42c | 390.44$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 60c | 180.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 136.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 136.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Lynx | 70c | 114.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Lynx | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Lynx | 28c | 89.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 54.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Lynx | 28c | 53.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 50.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Lynx | 28c | 49.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 40.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…0545backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 27.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Lynx | 59c | 27.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Lynx | 58c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.