Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc03351f7f8960f720fd3bdd08068bd95ebeb1ab6bbcd50c93e74ad0d18878158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Team Lynx, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Team Lynx | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 1,393$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.17 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f35…ed78backed Team Lynx | 52c | 530$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 530$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…c2c6backed Team Lynx | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…62aabacked Rune Eaters | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Rune Eaters | 39c | 469.85$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.7 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 319.07$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 296.84$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Rune Eaters | 23c | 270.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 257.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 44c | 158.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 89.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Rune Eaters | 47c | 55.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Lynx | 64c | 26.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.