NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5118ba0654dccb4cc359f477bb176ffb71c58a9825cff3eebd95e74e780a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Dolphins, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Dolphins | 51c | 18,597$9,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,520.58 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Dolphins | 49c | 12,112$5,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,929.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Patriots | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots | 49c | 11,000$5,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,610 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Dolphins | 50c | 8,630$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Patriots | 50c | 8,585$4,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Patriots | 48c | 4,521$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.22 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Patriots | 49c | 4,010$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Dolphins | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots | 49c | 795.95$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.58 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…712dbacked Dolphins | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Dolphins | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Dolphins | 49c | 395.2$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.65 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Patriots | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…0e7fbacked Patriots | 51c | 315.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…cc72backed Patriots | 52c | 56.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Patriots | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…acb3backed Patriots | 52c | 31.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Patriots | 51c | 25.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Patriots | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)this page
- Patriots vs. DolphinsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 41.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.