Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda62be987931b2163530aaad4723124ad08bec16e1fd9917fc2b3ddca17b33ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 10c | 4,396$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.48 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 666.84$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 571.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 500.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 8c | 379.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 340.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 310.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 7c | 300.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 294.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 272.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 78c | 260.36$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 77c | 228.66$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 209.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 183.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 182.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 154.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 112.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 108.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 105.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 80.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 74c | 54.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 74c | 48.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 78c | 48.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…2cdcbacked No | 80c | 30.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.