Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba9e0239608d53ff699e070efb0a0f8cc7c1077b4594daf7513434e893c8aa55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 7,662$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,555.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 1c | 4,692$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,480$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.84 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 11c | 790.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.41 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 771.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 692.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 11c | 640.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 69c | 580.69$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 512.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.9 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 450.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 68c | 444.62$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 420.53$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.19 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 71c | 371.44$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 355.92$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 316.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 285.25$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 261.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 225.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 223.64$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 49c | 222.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 214.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 9c | 211$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 31c | 190.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 36c | 188.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 150.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 143.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 27c | 141.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 136$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 76c | 126.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…49cfbacked No | 79c | 124.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 123.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 44c | 112.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 106$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 97.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 97.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed No | 70c | 90.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed No | 24c | 87.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 75c | 87.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 86.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 85.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 31c | 80.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 26c | 75.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 70c | 71.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 70.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 69.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 32c | 67.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 21c | 65.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 62.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 55.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 25c | 54.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 33c | 52.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 52.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 34c | 49.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 49.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 26c | 46.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed Yes | 68c | 45.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 31c | 45.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 27c | 44.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 30c | 42.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 35c | 42.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b7dabacked Yes | 33c | 42.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…d0b3backed Yes | 36c | 41.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 40.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 30c | 39.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 71c | 39.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…380abacked Yes | 33c | 30.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 60c | 30.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…9743backed No | 72c | 28.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes | 74c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 24.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7aa…ccb8backed No | 70c | 24.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 22.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 71c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 16.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.