TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,576 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c1,700$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.14,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed Yes1c1,448$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.027233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9e…5421backed No74c1,282$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.591625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c734.2$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c704.7$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No48c590.92$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4332157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No69c392.44$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1133567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes19c378.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes28c294.82$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3849547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c292.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes52c212.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f9…547ebacked No70c210.21$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes41c194.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5659818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes12c193.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4434319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes14c191.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.711,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes49c189.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.421225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes14c145$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.731029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes51c144.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.411,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes34c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.761,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cc…f3e5backed Yes30c129$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No34c128.43$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3513531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c126.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6a…8f52backed No70c123$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.93956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes25c121.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.411,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c113.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c104.18$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.741,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No63c103.4$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2744448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes18c97.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes52c89.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6516548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No67c87.21$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.638256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No52c81.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.165431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No43c78.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8412154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes57c74.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8626236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed Yes68c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes24c72.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4411126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c71.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.072,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes69c71.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491752.9%9 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7766…c957backed Yes54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Yes40c69.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.832760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No46c69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9927560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes53c68.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes52c64.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8312567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c63.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.915,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes52c62.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3342438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No50c56.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.613,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes33c53.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4731868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No67c52.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c48.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb2ba…d397backed No48c48.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No46c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8423547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No51c45.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.246349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes44c45.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc070…69e0backed Yes69c45.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c44.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7d…5219backed Yes43c44.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No42c43.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.174,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes52c43.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes46c43.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No55c42.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No49c39.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0957232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x151b…ef82backed No55c39.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.78955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f9…a005backed Yes38c39.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes32c38.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.259270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2410237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No37c37.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed No57c36.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8212535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes61c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No52c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.816366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes57c33.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.459133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No37c33.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1129653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.333554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes61c33.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.233767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes31c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.237140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa188…e84fbacked Yes34c32.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-71.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes32c31.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd110…fafdbacked No65c29.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.312642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No54c27.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.716934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No54c27.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.41,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9315…42a2backed Yes63c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.013441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes52c26.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No49c25.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9814961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No51c24.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0147442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd6…4638backed No65c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes51c23.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No53c23.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9728648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No51c22.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.264946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes62c22.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0416157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x684f…cef7backed No68c22.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.065435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.