Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2bda2028c83e1589b593333ca5aa9b23ce5507f52fd4e0bf869f56580172d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,700$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 1c | 1,448$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 74c | 1,282$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 734.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 704.7$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 48c | 590.92$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 392.44$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 378.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 294.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 292.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 52c | 212.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…547ebacked No | 70c | 210.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 41c | 194.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 193.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 191.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 49c | 189.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 14c | 145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 144.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cc…f3e5backed Yes | 30c | 129$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 34c | 128.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 126.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 70c | 123$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 121.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 113.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 104.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 63c | 103.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 97.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 52c | 89.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 67c | 87.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 52c | 81.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 43c | 78.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 57c | 74.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 24c | 72.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 71.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 69c | 71.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…c957backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 40c | 69.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 53c | 68.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 52c | 64.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 63.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 52c | 62.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 56.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 33c | 53.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 67c | 52.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 48.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…d397backed No | 48c | 48.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 51c | 45.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…69e0backed Yes | 69c | 45.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 44.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 43c | 44.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 42c | 43.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 52c | 43.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 42.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 39.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 55c | 39.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 38c | 39.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 38.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 37.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 57c | 36.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 57c | 33.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 37c | 33.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 61c | 33.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked Yes | 34c | 32.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 65c | 29.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 54c | 27.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 49c | 25.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…4638backed No | 65c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 51c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 53c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 62c | 22.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.