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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,485 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes77c181.31$139 inLost-$138.849671.9%69 W · 27 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes34c175.56$60 inLost-$59.6544139%172 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No27c139.98$38 inWon+$101.4813224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes73c136.35$100 inLost-$1004052.5%21 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c125.22$25 inLost-$24.693,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No80c124.95$100 inWon+$24.992,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes20c111.1$22 inLost-$22.2224349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No62c100.36$62 inWon+$38.1422160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes23c100$23 inLost-$2310640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c99.83$72 inWon+$28.151,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c98.08$38 inLost-$37.9112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes22c72.66$16 inLost-$15.9951235.9%184 W · 328 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon+$491,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No27c62.07$17 inWon+$45.3248226.6%128 W · 354 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes30c61$18 inLost-$18.355238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes23c60$14 inLost-$1437434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a11…e55dbacked Yes54c60$32 inLost-$32.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e1…f5e9backed Yes21c50$10 inLost-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes24c44.1$11 inLost-$10.757913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c43.56$15 inWon+$28.957,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes59c42.26$25 inLost-$25.0820838%79 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes72c41.67$30 inLost-$308641.9%36 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No54c40.32$22 inWon+$18.3950661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c40.26$28 inWon+$12.475,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No79c39.31$31 inWon+$8.4192145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No44c34$15 inWon+$19.172,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No77c26$20 inWon+$5.9841274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c25.1$19 inWon+$5.84,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No78c23.21$18 inWon+$557158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No75c20.6$16 inWon+$5.056675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.28666.3%57 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed No66c19$13 inWon+$6.469468.1%64 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No77c18.75$14 inWon+$4.3146736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a16…6004backed Yes70c16.4$11 inLost-$11.483767.6%25 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.