Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c9dcbb5dd2967f905adc819ba6f51bae2d5fe78d98d7590f5ab8d6049c38b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 77c | 1,253$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.23 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 866$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 68c | 677.44$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 280.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 249.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 229.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 188.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 24c | 184.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 151.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 124.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 115.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 22c | 114.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 13c | 109.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 27c | 102.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 75c | 99.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 63c | 90.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…116fbacked Yes | 29c | 76.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 73.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 24c | 73.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 15c | 67.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 66.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 22c | 65.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 64.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 62.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 56.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed No | 68c | 54.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 72c | 41.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 32c | 31.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.