CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 33 vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad467b1ea55f3360aa49dc64072ad58d6b393b3a81a6de1090e6492736c240e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof 33, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed 33 | 51c | 1,142$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.94 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked illwill | 54c | 574.74$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 409 | 50.6%207 W · 202 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked 33 | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked illwill | 48c | 468.3$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.01 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked 33 | 45c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 323 | 52%168 W · 155 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 33 | 53c | 396$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed 33 | 47c | 298.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed illwill | 49c | 286.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.12 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed illwill | 55c | 277.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked illwill | 53c | 251.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked illwill | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed 33 | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked illwill | 49c | 122.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed illwill | 68c | 109.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…e574backed illwill | 15c | 105.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked illwill | 54c | 102.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed 33 | 32c | 102.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed illwill | 53c | 83.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed 33 | 56c | 71.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked 33 | 72c | 69.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 69%87 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed illwill | 70c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked illwill | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed 33 | 50c | 61.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed illwill | 55c | 50.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed 33 | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked illwill | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked illwill | 49c | 49.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed 33 | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed illwill | 74c | 40.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed 33 | 49c | 31.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed 33 | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked illwill | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked illwill | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed 33 | 63c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…6a3abacked illwill | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…a8b5backed illwill | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.