Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaef8ad716d750051913f9aeef4f7c58cfb209a7f43224699d3e97ecf9b48ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 919$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.16 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 30c | 670$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 556.87$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 523.68$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 420.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 29c | 419.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 405.36$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 367$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 198.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 80c | 113.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…529ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 81.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 30c | 68.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 25c | 61.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 70c | 61.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.