Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde77f10fe356ecaa8aa0d131ae7c34e4bd892830f6d324a98691bc4fc54cc96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 69c | 3,699$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.15 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 1,790$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.63 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 57c | 1,421$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.31 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 40c | 1,053$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.87 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 48c | 1,015$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.45 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 3c | 920.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 65c | 791.13$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.76 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed No | 58c | 619$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 40c | 397$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 37c | 337.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.83 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 174.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 41c | 144.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 49c | 142.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed No | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 39c | 90.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 47c | 70.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…024abacked No | 32c | 39.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will CD Tondela vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.