Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75e3708c93fcdccf0993bcedfcf46ac89efc0482ef3246120f7c0fccfcbf6a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 69c | 12,290$8,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.58 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 36c | 7,316$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.6 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 32c | 3,581$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.89 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 32c | 3,061$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.82 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 29c | 765.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 21c | 720.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 34c | 591.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 335.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 37c | 284.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 246.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 242.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 212.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 197.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 146.79$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 24c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 49.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will CD Tondela vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.