Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Spirit Academy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb1d54a68c2c8237174641dc79ea1a09b2eaaa1518abd2569acb12d7a5ecca11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8586…8207backed Spirit Academy | 22c | 3,300$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…4fdbbacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 2,562$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4421…80d2backed Spirit Academy | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 1,150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Spirit Academy | 6c | 1,110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07b…6dfbbacked AVULUS | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…2289backed AVULUS | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Spirit Academy | 23c | 700.44$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…b267backed AVULUS | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…1ff8backed AVULUS | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…1d52backed AVULUS | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…bddebacked AVULUS | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4f…2a37backed AVULUS | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…180bbacked AVULUS | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 74c | 557.93$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 5c | 524$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…51e1backed Spirit Academy | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Spirit Academy | 21c | 433$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…aee1backed AVULUS | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3c…946cbacked AVULUS | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…8ff5backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f7…57adbacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 216.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed AVULUS | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 176.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 153.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Spirit Academy | 18c | 139.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Spirit Academy | 30c | 132.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 116.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked AVULUS | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Spirit Academy | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Spirit Academy | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed AVULUS | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed AVULUS | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AVULUS | 73c | 62.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed AVULUS | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…0c2abacked AVULUS | 76c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed AVULUS | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…cce7backed AVULUS | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Spirit Academy (BO3)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.