Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2739e7d03daa1a06534f266f9d7faff00f8723e1184c512ba084a67ea1d2b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Looking for Org, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Looking for Org | 2c | 5,400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Heroic | 72c | 5,053$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.04 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Looking for Org | 26c | 1,419$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Looking for Org | 56c | 1,232$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Looking for Org | 26c | 1,156$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Looking for Org | 27c | 909.73$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.68 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Looking for Org | 57c | 627.4$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.08 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic | 70c | 302.12$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…ec5bbacked Looking for Org | 41c | 244.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Looking for Org | 50c | 243.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…0512backed Looking for Org | 39c | 228.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Looking for Org | 26c | 199.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Looking for Org | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Looking for Org | 28c | 126.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Heroic | 48c | 88.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Looking for Org | 32c | 72.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Looking for Org | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2752…8ce3backed Looking for Org | 62c | 56.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Heroic | 44c | 23.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Heroic | 67c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.