Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef4433db77f4cecb3d04d5b8cb04d01d1bcdb1989e1b970afeba06f06c578cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Looking for Org, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Heroic | 65c | 2,399$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.42 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Looking for Org | 30c | 1,458$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Heroic | 73c | 1,311$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 75c | 1,200$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.85 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Looking for Org | 31c | 1,190$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.22 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Looking for Org | 30c | 878.73$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.94 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Looking for Org | 26c | 581.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Heroic | 66c | 434.19$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Looking for Org | 31c | 326.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Looking for Org | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…0128backed Heroic | 70c | 282.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Heroic | 68c | 273.57$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Looking for Org | 37c | 268$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Looking for Org | 31c | 200.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Looking for Org | 8c | 200.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Looking for Org | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Heroic | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Looking for Org | 30c | 146.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4355backed Looking for Org | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Heroic | 63c | 117.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Looking for Org | 31c | 116.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…ec5bbacked Looking for Org | 38c | 106.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Looking for Org | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Heroic | 72c | 85.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…9764backed Looking for Org | 33c | 74.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Looking for Org | 27c | 54.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…7a4bbacked Looking for Org | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Looking for Org | 34c | 44.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Looking for Org | 34c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Looking for Org | 27c | 39.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Heroic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Looking for Org | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Heroic | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Heroic | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked Heroic | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.