Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd497a54f10b4da1c77eff19a7fbf10fec4834ea2191b71f4d6ce00c93609e0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Looking for Org, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Looking for Org | 21c | 2,830$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.56 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Looking for Org | 19c | 2,172$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.7 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Heroic | 79c | 2,000$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.96 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Looking for Org | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Looking for Org | 27c | 1,664$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.24 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Heroic | 73c | 1,220$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Heroic | 79c | 1,201$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 78c | 794.04$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Looking for Org | 23c | 540.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Looking for Org | 7c | 438.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Looking for Org | 3c | 323.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Heroic | 78c | 315.73$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Heroic | 73c | 306.85$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Looking for Org | 18c | 298.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Looking for Org | 20c | 207.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Looking for Org | 19c | 200.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Heroic | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Looking for Org | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Looking for Org | 10c | 196.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Heroic | 10c | 190.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Heroic | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Heroic | 73c | 138$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heroic | 77c | 133.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Looking for Org | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Looking for Org | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Looking for Org | 19c | 118.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Looking for Org | 27c | 114.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…d949backed Heroic | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Looking for Org vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.