Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb3c00cf968d7a74d10c163471b96f8b3ee9fa4e5e6d0f72fa49b976cbb0dde3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 5,927$4,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.07 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 24c | 2,464$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.36 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bab…cf38backed No | 78c | 1,855$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,681$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.07 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,264$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.94 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 956$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 4c | 878.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 687.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…4dbebacked Yes | 22c | 549.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 524.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 474.57$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 392$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…08bfbacked Yes | 24c | 233.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 77c | 215.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 22c | 187.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 78c | 154$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 22c | 113.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 21c | 93.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…2f01backed Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…dcdfbacked Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 77c | 45.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 32.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed No | 77c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.