Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f431d34772b49db082609fde407f626362d574c34299636f3eda7b8186d497

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes	19c	6,705$1,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,272.91	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	18c	4,944$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.79	298	46.3%138 W · 160 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	18c	4,793$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.74	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No	80c	3,744$2,987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.2	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	73cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Yes	19c	3,333$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.19	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes	20c	3,301$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.66	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes	19c	3,000$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.99	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Yes	17c	2,552$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.27	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccc5…ada3backed No	80c	2,489$1,992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$497.88	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes	20c	2,400$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	+5.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+403.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No	80c	1,194$955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.74	272	47.1%128 W · 144 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes	20c	650.2$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.74	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes	19c	580.7$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.17	664	46.2%307 W · 357 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes	19c	530$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-28%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	12c	529.9$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.69	1,543	40.1%618 W · 925 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab31…c16ebacked Yes	18c	511.11$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c53…3c12backed Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4931…6f58backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed No	80c	500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes	6c	480.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.03	200	42.5%85 W · 115 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No	79c	450$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No	79c	450$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf591…39c8backed Yes	19c	443.4$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.25	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes	19c	400$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	91	44%40 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No	79c	400$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No	79c	360$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.6	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes	14c	352.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	236	37.3%88 W · 148 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Yes	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	98	43.9%43 W · 55 L	+9.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed No	79c	300$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbb…7fdabacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.39per pick	21cpaid	+248.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No	79c	299.98$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	127	48%61 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d9…917fbacked Yes	18c	282.06$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e6…11afbacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	12cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed No	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	105	66.7%70 W · 35 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes	21c	238.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6c…08bfbacked Yes	19c	231.58$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7652…c6c5backed Yes	20c	226.35$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	41cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes	18c	210.17$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.83	59	37.3%22 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes	21c	190.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	+5.7wins	+0.13per pick	16cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked No	79c	170$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked No	79c	170$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No	80c	169$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.8	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Yes	19c	163.16$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed No	79c	160$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0e…e8fabacked Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes	11c	125.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed No	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	61	63.9%39 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No	79c	120$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	113	50.4%57 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No	79c	120$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	17.6%12 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x63c6…cee1backed Yes	20c	117.1$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb163…4129backed Yes	18c	113.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+3.6wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dcb…c800backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes	16c	110.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x497e…1161backed Yes	14c	103.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcf…5cb5backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8c…7026backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe7…5d1abacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked No	79c	99.88$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.97	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda01…2b17backed Yes	18c	96.39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No	80c	91$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No	79c	86.4$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.14	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x610c…998fbacked Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+109.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes	20c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	55	34.5%19 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…be12backed Yes	19c	78.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5a…0ea1backed Yes	19c	76.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…f2c1backed Yes	18c	73.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaa…7688backed Yes	17c	70.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	119	52.1%62 W · 57 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed No	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed No	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…a4d0backed Yes	21c	57.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	32cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a3…b461backed Yes	20c	50.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	34.8%47 W · 88 L	-10.9wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	79	34.2%27 W · 52 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc618…0b85backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.19per pick	55cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No	80c	43.06$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d43…fc99backed No	80c	37.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd63…64d9backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No	79c	23.81$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked No	80c	13.13$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.63	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28?this page
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?No won
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event